Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:11Alexander Wennberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4), Vitek Vanecek (1)1–2
- P39:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (4), Yegor Chinakhov (6)1–1
- P218:49Jack Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (1), Fabian Zetterlund (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:49Jack Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (1), Fabian Zetterlund (3)CBJ 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 47% → 71% +23SJ 47% → 71%+23 pts
- P39:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (4), Yegor Chinakhov (6)CBJ 1 – 1 SJ · CBJ 21% → 52% +31CBJ 21% → 52%+31 pts
- OT3:11Alexander Wennberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4), Vitek Vanecek (1)CBJ 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 49% → 98% +49SJ 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML CBJ -130 / SJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 53.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- SJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +26 Elo | CBJ 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.432nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 46.2%29th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–3 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.