Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kevin LabancGoals1
- Zachary Aston-ReeseAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:34Dylan Strome Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (7), Taylor Raddysh (3)2–7
- P214:36Kevin Labanc Goal (1) Poke, assists: Zachary Aston-Reese (2), Sean Monahan (5)2–6
- P24:51Connor McMichael Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (3), Pierre-Luc Dubois (5)1–6
- P20:49Damon Severson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (3)1–5
- P114:58Nic Dowd Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (7), Brandon Duhaime (2)0–5
- P114:34Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Aliaksei Protas (7)0–4
- P17:28Andrew Mangiapane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (2), Hendrix Lapierre (1)0–3
- P11:42Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (5)0–2
- P10:56Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Alex Ovechkin (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:56Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Alex Ovechkin (6)CBJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 69% → 81% +12WSH 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P11:42Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (5)CBJ 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 81% → 89% +8WSH 81% → 89%+8 pts
- P17:28Andrew Mangiapane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (2), Hendrix Lapierre (1)CBJ 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 90% → 95% +5WSH 90% → 95%+5 pts
- P114:34Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Aliaksei Protas (7)CBJ 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 96% → 98% +3WSH 96% → 98%+3 pts
- P114:58Nic Dowd Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (7), Brandon Duhaime (2)CBJ 0 – 5 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +1WSH 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 69%
- ML CBJ +215 / WSH -260
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 64.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -228
- CBJ +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +102 Elo | WSH 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 4.13rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.16th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 56.7%2nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 87.9%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–2 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–3 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.