Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists3
- John CarlsonPoints3
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (7), John Carlson (18)3–2
- P312:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (11), Erik Gudbranson (9)2–2
- P217:24Anthony Mantha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (12), John Carlson (17)2–1
- P215:18Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Emil Bemstrom (5), Johnny Gaudreau (15)1–1
- P118:24Anthony Mantha Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (14), John Carlson (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:24Anthony Mantha Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (14), John Carlson (16)WSH 1 – 0 CBJ · WSH 43% → 61% +17WSH 43% → 61%+17 pts
- P215:18Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Emil Bemstrom (5), Johnny Gaudreau (15)WSH 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 33% → 55% +22CBJ 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P217:24Anthony Mantha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (12), John Carlson (17)WSH 2 – 1 CBJ · WSH 45% → 68% +23WSH 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P312:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (11), Erik Gudbranson (9)WSH 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 16% → 53% +37CBJ 16% → 53%+37 pts
- OT4:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (7), John Carlson (18)WSH 3 – 2 CBJ · WSH 49% → >99% +51WSH 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -139
- WSH +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +23 Elo | CBJ 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 11th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.