Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Martin FehervaryGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Martin FehervaryPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P211:33Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (8), Dylan Strome (6)1–1
- P27:41Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (12)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:41Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (12)WSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 75% +18CAR 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P211:33Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (8), Dylan Strome (6)WSH 1 – 1 CAR · WSH 24% → 43% +19WSH 24% → 43%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Fair odds
- CAR -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +15 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +95 Elo | CAR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 87.6%31st of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 13th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 8–48th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.