Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bobby Brink Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00T.J. Oshie Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Sean Couturier Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P317:01Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5)3–3
- P39:05Dylan Strome Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10), Tom Wilson (7)3–2
- P35:25Joel Farabee Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Poehling (5)2–2
- P215:29Tom Wilson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), T.J. Oshie (2)2–1
- P23:00Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Anthony Mantha (4)1–1
- P22:14Bobby Brink Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc Staal (1), Morgan Frost (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:00Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Anthony Mantha (4)WSH 1 – 1 PHI · WSH 29% → 46% +17WSH 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P215:29Tom Wilson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), T.J. Oshie (2)WSH 2 – 1 PHI · WSH 47% → 69% +22WSH 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P35:25Joel Farabee Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Poehling (5)WSH 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 25% → 52% +28PHI 25% → 52%+28 pts
- P39:05Dylan Strome Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10), Tom Wilson (7)WSH 3 – 2 PHI · WSH 48% → 79% +31WSH 48% → 79%+31 pts
- P317:01Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (5)WSH 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 5% → 51% +46PHI 5% → 51%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -121
- WSH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 54.1%5th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%17th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.