Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals3
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals1
- Brett LeasonAssists1
- Brett LeasonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:32Frank Vatrano Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (4)5–4
- P314:22Tom Wilson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (9), John Carlson (12)5–3
- P311:45Brock McGinn Goal (1) Between Legs, assists: Brett Leason (3), Tristan Luneau (2)4–3
- P118:59Nic Dowd Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (5), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (3)4–2
- P118:39Tom Wilson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), John Carlson (11)3–2
- P115:54Tom Wilson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P17:51Brett Leason Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (4)1–2
- P11:49Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:27Anthony Mantha Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 44% → 59% +15ANA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P115:54Tom Wilson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 2 – 2 ANA · WSH 27% → 42% +16WSH 27% → 42%+16 pts
- P118:39Tom Wilson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), John Carlson (11)WSH 3 – 2 ANA · WSH 43% → 60% +17WSH 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P118:59Nic Dowd Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (5), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (3)WSH 4 – 2 ANA · WSH 60% → 76% +16WSH 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P311:45Brock McGinn Goal (1) Between Legs, assists: Brett Leason (3), Tristan Luneau (2)WSH 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 3% → 18% +15ANA 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 57%
- Fair odds
- ANA -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +50 Elo | ANA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.1% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 31 |
| 7th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 3–831st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.