Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Max JonesGoals2
- Urho VaakanainenAssists1
- Max JonesPoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Scoring summary
- P315:50Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (5), Evander Kane (9)2–8
- P37:11Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Evan Bouchard (15)2–7
- P27:20Zach Hyman Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (17)2–6
- P25:01James Hamblin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Erne (1), Vincent Desharnais (3)2–5
- P117:50Zach Hyman Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Vincent Desharnais (2)2–4
- P112:37Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Connor McDavid (15)2–3
- P19:29Connor McDavid Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (10), Darnell Nurse (3)2–2
- P16:10Max Jones Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (5), Pavel Mintyukov (11)2–1
- P14:36Evander Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Leon Draisaitl (19)1–1
- P13:32Max Jones Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (2), Urho Vaakanainen (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:32Max Jones Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (2), Urho Vaakanainen (4)ANA 1 – 0 EDM · ANA 44% → 59% +15ANA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P14:36Evander Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Leon Draisaitl (19)ANA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 41% → 56% +15EDM 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P16:10Max Jones Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (5), Pavel Mintyukov (11)ANA 2 – 1 EDM · ANA 44% → 60% +15ANA 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P19:29Connor McDavid Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (10), Darnell Nurse (3)ANA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 40% → 55% +16EDM 40% → 55%+16 pts
- P112:37Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Connor McDavid (15)ANA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 55% → 71% +15EDM 55% → 71%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Fair odds
- EDM -127
- ANA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −33 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.81 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +66 Elo | EDM 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 53.6%6th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 87.6%30th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 4th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.