Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:24Alex Killorn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (11), Troy Terry (8)5–2
- P33:21Anze Kopitar Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (12), Drew Doughty (6)5–1
- P212:42Radko Gudas Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (7), Ryan Strome (13)4–1
- P22:56Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Trevor Moore (8)4–0
- P21:17Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (4), Adrian Kempe (11)3–0
- P112:26Arthur Kaliyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (8), Trevor Moore (7)2–0
- P110:25Kevin Fiala Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (9), Drew Doughty (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:25Kevin Fiala Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (9), Drew Doughty (5)LA 1 – 0 ANA · LA 46% → 62% +16LA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P112:26Arthur Kaliyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (8), Trevor Moore (7)LA 2 – 0 ANA · LA 63% → 77% +14LA 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P21:17Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (4), Adrian Kempe (11)LA 3 – 0 ANA · LA 80% → 90% +10LA 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P22:56Kevin Fiala Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Trevor Moore (8)LA 4 – 0 ANA · LA 91% → 96% +6LA 91% → 96%+6 pts
- P212:42Radko Gudas Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (7), Ryan Strome (13)LA 4 – 1 ANA · ANA 2% → 6% +4ANA 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 50%
- Fair odds
- ANA -117
- LA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | +7 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +1 Elo | LA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 1st of 316–0 | Road vs home | 3–727th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.