Philadelphia Flyers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Morgan FrostGoals2
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Trevor LewisAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:50Adrian Kempe Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)4–2
- P37:04Cam Atkinson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (7)4–1
- P218:06Carl Grundstrom Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (3), Andreas Englund (4)3–1
- P216:30Morgan Frost Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Travis Konecny (4)3–0
- P26:26Morgan Frost Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (5), Sean Walker (4)2–0
- P114:59Owen Tippett Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sean Walker (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:59Owen Tippett Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sean Walker (3)PHI 1 – 0 LA · PHI 41% → 58% +17PHI 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P26:26Morgan Frost Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (5), Sean Walker (4)PHI 2 – 0 LA · PHI 61% → 78% +17PHI 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P216:30Morgan Frost Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Travis Konecny (4)PHI 3 – 0 LA · PHI 84% → 94% +10PHI 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P218:06Carl Grundstrom Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (3), Andreas Englund (4)PHI 3 – 1 LA · LA 5% → 15% +10LA 5% → 15%+10 pts
- P37:04Cam Atkinson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (7)PHI 4 – 1 LA · PHI 93% → 99% +6PHI 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Fair odds
- LA -153
- PHI +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +19 | PHI: Cal Petersen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +109 Elo | LA 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.92nd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 14th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.15th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 53.9%7th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 19th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 0–530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.