Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:51Joel Farabee Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (10), Scott Laughton (7)1–2
- P216:18William Eklund Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2)0–2
- P11:43Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (2), Mikael Granlund (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:43Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (2), Mikael Granlund (1)PHI 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 67% +14SJ 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P216:18William Eklund Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2)PHI 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 74% → 89% +15SJ 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P218:51Joel Farabee Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (10), Scott Laughton (7)PHI 1 – 2 SJ · PHI 10% → 25% +15PHI 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −35 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.87 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +25 Elo | PHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 1.131st of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 5.031st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −3.931st of 31 |
| 7th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 40.2%31st of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.1% | Save percentage | 87.3%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 18th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 0–629th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.