San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Nick PerbixAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:44Luke Glendening Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Conor Sheary (2), Darren Raddysh (4)0–6
- P27:29Nicholas Paul Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (5), Victor Hedman (8)0–5
- P24:01Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Barré-Boulet (1), Victor Hedman (7)0–4
- P119:18Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Mikhail Sergachev (5)0–3
- P16:03Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Calvin de Haan (1), Nick Perbix (3)0–2
- P11:41Brayden Point Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (4), Nick Perbix (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:41Brayden Point Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (4), Nick Perbix (2)SJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 70% +14TB 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:03Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Calvin de Haan (1), Nick Perbix (3)SJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 70% → 82% +12TB 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P119:18Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Mikhail Sergachev (5)SJ 0 – 3 TB · TB 84% → 93% +8TB 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P24:01Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Barré-Boulet (1), Victor Hedman (7)SJ 0 – 4 TB · TB 94% → 98% +4TB 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P27:29Nicholas Paul Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (5), Victor Hedman (8)SJ 0 – 5 TB · TB 98% → >99% +1TB 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- SJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +3 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +72 Elo | TB 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.3 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.418th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 31 |
| 31st of 3138.8% | Shot share | 43.7%28th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.3%10th of 31 |
| 27th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.