Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
SharksScoring summary
- P311:13Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (4)3–1
- P216:46David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Carlo (2)3–0
- P118:27James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Poke, assists: Trent Frederic (1), Charlie Coyle (2)2–0
- P118:06Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:06Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (1)BOS 1 – 0 SJ · BOS 47% → 64% +17BOS 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P118:27James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Poke, assists: Trent Frederic (1), Charlie Coyle (2)BOS 2 – 0 SJ · BOS 64% → 79% +15BOS 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P216:46David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Carlo (2)BOS 3 – 0 SJ · BOS 87% → 96% +9BOS 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P311:13Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (4)BOS 3 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 3% +3SJ <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Fair odds
- SJ -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 1.729th of 31 |
| 2nd of 311.5 | Goals allowed | 4.023rd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.5 | Margin | −2.330th of 31 |
| 12th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 32.3%31st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3194.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%13th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.