Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nicolas HagueGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists2
- Nicolas HaguePoints2
Sharks- Filip ZadinaGoals1
- Henry ThrunAssists1
- Filip ZadinaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:11Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1), William Karlsson (2)4–1
- P219:24Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (1), Ben Hutton (1)3–1
- P218:31Nicolas Hague Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Jack Eichel (1)2–1
- P117:48Filip Zadina Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (1), Henry Thrun (1)1–1
- P115:25Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Nicolas Hague (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:25Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Nicolas Hague (1)VGK 1 – 0 SJ · VGK 46% → 62% +17VGK 46% → 62%+17 pts
- P117:48Filip Zadina Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (1), Henry Thrun (1)VGK 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 37% → 54% +17SJ 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P218:31Nicolas Hague Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Jack Eichel (1)VGK 2 – 1 SJ · VGK 47% → 70% +23VGK 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P219:24Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (1), Ben Hutton (1)VGK 3 – 1 SJ · VGK 71% → 88% +17VGK 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P32:11Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1), William Karlsson (2)VGK 4 – 1 SJ · VGK 90% → 97% +8VGK 90% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 54%
- Fair odds
- SJ -122
- VGK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | VGK: Logan Thompson (no track record yet) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +31 Elo | SJ 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Golden Knights: last 1