Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Chandler Stephenson (1)1–4
- P28:19Jared McCann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1)1–3
- P21:20Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1)0–3
- P114:57Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: none0–2
- P17:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brett Howden (1), Mark Stone (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brett Howden (1), Mark Stone (1)SEA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +15VGK 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P114:57Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: noneSEA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 70% → 83% +13VGK 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P21:20Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1)SEA 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 84% → 93% +8VGK 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P28:19Jared McCann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1)SEA 1 – 3 VGK · SEA 5% → 14% +8SEA 5% → 14%+8 pts
- P318:45Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Chandler Stephenson (1)SEA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Fair odds
- VGK -122
- SEA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | SEA: Philipp Grubauer (no track record yet) · VGK: Adin Hill (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +35 Elo | VGK 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.