Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:08Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Stefan Noesen (1)6–3
- P314:53Martin Necas Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Michael Bunting (3), Brady Skjei (5)5–3
- P311:51Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (2), Brent Burns (2)4–3
- P39:07Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Brady Skjei (4)3–3
- P216:06William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (2), Tomas Hertl (3)2–3
- P29:11Filip Zadina Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1)2–2
- P28:54Jaccob Slavin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P14:06Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (2), Teuvo Teravainen (1)1–1
- P13:15Fabian Zetterlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:54Jaccob Slavin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 SJ · CAR 46% → 66% +20CAR 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P29:11Filip Zadina Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1)CAR 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 34% → 54% +20SJ 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P216:06William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (2), Tomas Hertl (3)CAR 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 53% → 75% +21SJ 53% → 75%+21 pts
- P39:07Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Brady Skjei (4)CAR 3 – 3 SJ · CAR 18% → 48% +30CAR 18% → 48%+30 pts
- P311:51Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (2), Brent Burns (2)CAR 4 – 3 SJ · CAR 48% → 83% +35CAR 48% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 56%
- Fair odds
- SJ -123
- CAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +41 Elo | SJ 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.7 | Goals scored | 1.030th of 31 |
| 30th of 314.7 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −2.030th of 31 |
| 13th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 34.4%31st of 31 |
| 30th of 3185.5% | Save percentage | 94.0%9th of 31 |
| 5th of 231–1 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Hurricanes: last 3