Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Cale MakarPoints1
Sharks- Thomas BordeleauGoals1
- Mike HoffmanAssists1
- Thomas BordeleauPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mikko Rantanen Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:34Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1)1–1
- P18:42Thomas Bordeleau Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Benning (1), Mike Hoffman (1)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:42Thomas Bordeleau Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Benning (1), Mike Hoffman (1)COL 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 54% → 69% +15SJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P318:34Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1)COL 1 – 1 SJ · COL <1% → 49% +48COL <1% → 49%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 53%
- Fair odds
- SJ -120
- COL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | — | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +19 Elo | SJ 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Goals scored | 1.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 302.0 | Goals allowed | 4.019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.0 | Margin | −3.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 3050.7% | Shot share | 41.8%28th of 30 |
| 6th of 3094.4% | Save percentage | 87.5%24th of 30 |
| 1st of 191–0 | Road vs home | 0–120th of 23 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Avalanche: last 1