Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals3
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:41Frank Vatrano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2)3–6
- P318:03Cam Fowler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (1), Adam Henrique (1)3–5
- P315:29Martin Necas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Tony DeAngelo (3)3–4
- P33:01Teuvo Teravainen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (1), Dmitry Orlov (1)2–4
- P216:44Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (3), Mason McTavish (1)1–4
- P213:52Teuvo Teravainen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (3), Brett Pesce (1)1–3
- P112:06Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (1), Ryan Strome (2)0–3
- P18:31Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (2), Cam Fowler (1)0–2
- P16:52Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (1)CAR 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 54% → 69% +15ANA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P18:31Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (2), Cam Fowler (1)CAR 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 69% → 82% +12ANA 69% → 82%+12 pts
- P112:06Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (1), Ryan Strome (2)CAR 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 82% → 91% +9ANA 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P213:52Teuvo Teravainen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (3), Brett Pesce (1)CAR 1 – 3 ANA · CAR 4% → 12% +8CAR 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P315:29Martin Necas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Tony DeAngelo (3)CAR 3 – 4 ANA · CAR <1% → 9% +8CAR <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Fair odds
- ANA -121
- CAR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | ANA and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | — | CAR: Antti Raanta (no track record yet) · ANA: Lukas Dostal (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +25 Elo | ANA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 315.5 | Goals scored | 1.028th of 31 |
| 19th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 4.019th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+1.5 | Margin | −3.029th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 37.7%29th of 31 |
| 26th of 3186.7% | Save percentage | 91.9%13th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Hurricanes: last 2