Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:32Jonas Rondbjerg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (2), Nicolas Roy (1)1–4
- P36:45Mason McTavish Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (1), Ryan Strome (1)1–3
- P36:16Shea Theodore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2), Chandler Stephenson (3)0–3
- P215:03Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Paul Cotter (1), Brayden McNabb (2)0–2
- P119:58Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Chandler Stephenson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:58Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Chandler Stephenson (2)ANA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 71% +17VGK 55% → 71%+17 pts
- P215:03Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Paul Cotter (1), Brayden McNabb (2)ANA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 74% → 89% +14VGK 74% → 89%+14 pts
- P36:16Shea Theodore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2), Chandler Stephenson (3)ANA 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 94% → >99% +5VGK 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P36:45Mason McTavish Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (1), Ryan Strome (1)ANA 1 – 3 VGK · ANA <1% → 5% +4ANA <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P317:32Jonas Rondbjerg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (2), Nicolas Roy (1)ANA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- ANA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | +11 | ANA: John Gibson (no track record yet) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +56 Elo | VGK 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Ducks: last 0