Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:04David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Charlie Coyle (1)1–3
- P213:09David Pastrnak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Milan Lucic (1)1–2
- P111:22Trent Frederic Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (1), Matthew Poitras (1)1–1
- P15:37Connor Bedard Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Ryan Donato (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Connor Bedard Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Ryan Donato (1)CHI 1 – 0 BOS · CHI 41% → 56% +15CHI 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:22Trent Frederic Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (1), Matthew Poitras (1)CHI 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 42% → 58% +16BOS 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P213:09David Pastrnak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Milan Lucic (1)CHI 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 56% → 76% +20BOS 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P319:04David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Charlie Coyle (1)CHI 1 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- CHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CHI: Arvid Soderblom (no track record yet) · BOS: Linus Ullmark (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blackhawks: last 1