Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals2
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints2
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- James van RiemsdykPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:52James van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (2), David Pastrnak (1)2–3
- P216:54Colton Sissons Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (1), Filip Forsberg (3)2–2
- P214:46David Pastrnak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P114:48James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Charlie McAvoy (1)1–1
- P13:29Colton Sissons Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Tyson Barrie (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:29Colton Sissons Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Tyson Barrie (1)NSH 1 – 0 BOS · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:48James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Charlie McAvoy (1)NSH 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 38% → 54% +17BOS 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P214:46David Pastrnak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 53% → 74% +21BOS 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P216:54Colton Sissons Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (1), Filip Forsberg (3)NSH 2 – 2 BOS · NSH 25% → 47% +22NSH 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P32:52James van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (2), David Pastrnak (1)NSH 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 53% → 77% +25BOS 53% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | — | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +31 Elo | BOS 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 293.0 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 29 |
| 10th of 292.5 | Goals allowed | 1.02nd of 29 |
| 14th of 29+0.5 | Margin | +2.05th of 29 |
| 11th of 2953.7% | Shot share | 61.1%2nd of 29 |
| 12th of 2992.9% | Save percentage | 95.2%7th of 29 |
| 7th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 19 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Predators: last 2