Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Gustav NyquistPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:19Juuso Parssinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P310:03Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (1), Ryan McDonagh (2)0–2
- P210:24Colton Sissons Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:24Colton Sissons Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (1)SEA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 53% → 73% +19NSH 53% → 73%+19 pts
- P310:03Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (1), Ryan McDonagh (2)SEA 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 83% → 97% +14NSH 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P318:19Juuso Parssinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 3 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- SEA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −11 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +30 Elo | NSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 231.0 | Goals scored | 3.012th of 23 |
| 12th of 234.0 | Goals allowed | 5.016th of 23 |
| 20th of 23−3.0 | Margin | −2.015th of 23 |
| 8th of 2354.1% | Shot share | 47.7%14th of 23 |
| 14th of 2388.9% | Save percentage | 87.9%19th of 23 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Kraken: last 1