Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Anthony CirelliAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Tyson JostAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Rasmus Dahlin (2)2–3
- P319:53Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4)2–2
- P217:58Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2), Tanner Jeannot (2)1–2
- P115:28Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (2), Alex Tuch (1)0–2
- P18:57Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (1), Mattias Samuelsson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (1), Mattias Samuelsson (1)TB 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 70% +15BUF 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P115:28Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (2), Alex Tuch (1)TB 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 70% → 83% +13BUF 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P217:58Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2), Tanner Jeannot (2)TB 1 – 2 BUF · TB 10% → 25% +15TB 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P319:53Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4)TB 2 – 2 BUF · TB 0% → 50% +50TB 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:46Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Rasmus Dahlin (2)TB 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 51% → 95% +43BUF 51% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Fair odds
- BUF -123
- TB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −8 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +38 Elo | BUF 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 1.527th of 31 |
| 28th of 314.7 | Goals allowed | 4.024th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−1.0 | Margin | −2.530th of 31 |
| 27th of 3142.8% | Shot share | 46.9%21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 88.1%25th of 31 |
| 12th of 220–2 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 26 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Lightning: last 3