Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:59Moritz Seider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (2)4–6
- P39:39Victor Hedman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (2), Steven Stamkos (2)4–5
- P34:44Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2)3–5
- P215:23J.T. Compher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (1), Andrew Copp (1)3–4
- P210:53Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Anthony Cirelli (1)3–3
- P22:01Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P114:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2)2–2
- P112:52Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (3)2–1
- P19:46Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (2), Nikita Kucherov (1)1–1
- P15:11Daniel Sprong Goal (2) Poke, assists: Alex DeBrincat (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:52Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (3)TB 2 – 1 DET · TB 46% → 62% +16TB 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P114:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2)TB 2 – 2 DET · DET 38% → 54% +17DET 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P22:01Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 3 DET · DET 54% → 71% +17DET 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P210:53Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Anthony Cirelli (1)TB 3 – 3 DET · TB 27% → 47% +20TB 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P215:23J.T. Compher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (1), Andrew Copp (1)TB 3 – 4 DET · DET 53% → 74% +21DET 53% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -121
- TB +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | −6 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +24 Elo | DET 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 295.0 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 29 |
| 12th of 293.0 | Goals allowed | 4.019th of 29 |
| 5th of 29+2.0 | Margin | −1.019th of 29 |
| 12th of 2952.3% | Shot share | 56.5%8th of 29 |
| 16th of 2990.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%22nd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Lightning: last 1