Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Jake WalmanAssists1
- Robby FabbriPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jonas SiegenthalerAssists3
- Jonas SiegenthalerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:26Robby Fabbri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (1), Jake Walman (1)3–4
- P318:29Erik Haula Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (3), John Marino (1)2–4
- P315:37Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (2)2–3
- P310:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)2–2
- P218:43Jack Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (1), Jonas Siegenthaler (1)1–2
- P213:39Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (1)1–1
- P212:14Daniel Sprong Goal (1) Deflected, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:14Daniel Sprong Goal (1) Deflected, assists: noneDET 1 – 0 NJ · DET 47% → 67% +21DET 47% → 67%+21 pts
- P213:39Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (1)DET 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 32% → 53% +21NJ 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P218:43Jack Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (1), Jonas Siegenthaler (1)DET 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 75% +22NJ 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P310:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)DET 2 – 2 NJ · DET 16% → 48% +32DET 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P315:37Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (2)DET 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 51% → 92% +40NJ 51% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Fair odds
- NJ -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | DET: Ville Husso (no track record yet) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +35 Elo | NJ 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.