New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists3
- Chris KreiderPoints3
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:31Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (1), Mika Zibanejad (3)5–1
- P311:34Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2), K'Andre Miller (1)4–1
- P218:30JJ Peterka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (1), Henri Jokiharju (1)3–1
- P212:49Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P112:22Chris Kreider Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (1), Mika Zibanejad (1)2–0
- P13:47Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Filip Chytil (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:47Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Filip Chytil (1)NYR 1 – 0 BUF · NYR 45% → 60% +15NYR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P112:22Chris Kreider Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (1), Mika Zibanejad (1)NYR 2 – 0 BUF · NYR 62% → 76% +14NYR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P212:49Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 3 – 0 BUF · NYR 84% → 94% +10NYR 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P218:30JJ Peterka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (1), Henri Jokiharju (1)NYR 3 – 1 BUF · BUF 4% → 13% +9BUF 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P311:34Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2), K'Andre Miller (1)NYR 4 – 1 BUF · NYR 97% → >99% +3NYR 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Fair odds
- BUF -122
- NYR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | NYR: Igor Shesterkin (no track record yet) · BUF: Devon Levi (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +35 Elo | BUF 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.