Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jordan GreenwayGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints2
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:40Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (1), Cal Clutterbuck (1)2–3
- P32:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (2), Rasmus Dahlin (1)2–2
- P24:15Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Zach Benson (1)1–2
- P118:18Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1), Ryan Pulock (1)0–2
- P15:57Brock Nelson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:57Brock Nelson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (1)BUF 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 55% → 70% +14NYI 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P118:18Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1), Ryan Pulock (1)BUF 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 71% → 84% +13NYI 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P24:15Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Zach Benson (1)BUF 1 – 2 NYI · BUF 15% → 28% +13BUF 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P32:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (2), Rasmus Dahlin (1)BUF 2 – 2 NYI · BUF 23% → 47% +24BUF 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P313:40Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (1), Cal Clutterbuck (1)BUF 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 88% +36NYI 52% → 88%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Fair odds
- NYI -125
- BUF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | — | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +52 Elo | NYI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Sabres: last 1