Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Tanner JeannotGoals1
- Tanner JeannotAssists1
- Tanner JeannotPoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:17Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1), Joonas Korpisalo (1)2–5
- P312:53Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (2), Artem Zub (2)2–4
- P219:01Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3)2–3
- P213:00Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (1), Victor Hedman (4)2–2
- P28:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3)1–2
- P21:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), Tanner Jeannot (1)1–1
- P17:02Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Jakob Chychrun (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Jakob Chychrun (2)TB 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 73% +14OTT 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), Tanner Jeannot (1)TB 1 – 1 OTT · TB 26% → 43% +16TB 26% → 43%+16 pts
- P28:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3)TB 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 75% +18OTT 56% → 75%+18 pts
- P213:00Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (1), Victor Hedman (4)TB 2 – 2 OTT · TB 24% → 44% +20TB 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P219:01Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3)TB 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 55% → 77% +22OTT 55% → 77%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Fair odds
- OTT -144
- TB +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | −11 | TB: Matt Tomkins (no track record yet) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +55 Elo | OTT 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.5 | Goals scored | 4.07th of 31 |
| 27th of 314.5 | Goals allowed | 3.515th of 31 |
| 14th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.512th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3144.7% | Shot share | 49.2%17th of 31 |
| 20th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%20th of 31 |
| 9th of 220–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 24 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Lightning: last 2