Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Senators- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Scoring summary
- P31:32Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (2), Tim Stützle (1)2–5
- P219:54Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (1)2–4
- P216:30Cam York Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (1), Sean Walker (1)2–3
- P216:12Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Jakob Chychrun (1)1–3
- P116:51Travis Konecny Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (1), Travis Sanheim (2)1–2
- P110:47Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (1), Jake Sanderson (1)0–2
- P12:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack MacEwen (1), Ridly Greig (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack MacEwen (1), Ridly Greig (1)PHI 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 69% +14OTT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P116:51Travis Konecny Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (1), Travis Sanheim (2)PHI 1 – 2 OTT · PHI 17% → 30% +13PHI 17% → 30%+13 pts
- P216:12Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Jakob Chychrun (1)PHI 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 74% → 89% +15OTT 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P216:30Cam York Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (1), Sean Walker (1)PHI 2 – 3 OTT · PHI 11% → 26% +15PHI 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P219:54Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (1)PHI 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 76% → 91% +15OTT 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | — | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +22 Elo | OTT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 294.0 | Goals scored | 3.012th of 29 |
| 7th of 292.0 | Goals allowed | 5.023rd of 29 |
| 5th of 29+2.0 | Margin | −2.020th of 29 |
| 12th of 2952.9% | Shot share | 41.7%24th of 29 |
| 12th of 2993.9% | Save percentage | 88.1%23rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Flyers: last 1