Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Scott LaughtonAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Blue Jackets- Jake BeanGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (2), Travis Sanheim (1)4–2
- P319:16Patrik Laine Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (2), Boone Jenner (1)3–2
- P318:31Cam Atkinson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Carter Hart (1)3–1
- P112:43Travis Konecny Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1)2–1
- P18:24Jake Bean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Kirill Marchenko (1)1–1
- P13:33Joel Farabee Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1), Egor Zamula (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:33Joel Farabee Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1), Egor Zamula (1)PHI 1 – 0 CBJ · PHI 45% → 60% +15PHI 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P18:24Jake Bean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Kirill Marchenko (1)PHI 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 39% → 55% +16CBJ 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P112:43Travis Konecny Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1)PHI 2 – 1 CBJ · PHI 46% → 62% +16PHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P318:31Cam Atkinson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Carter Hart (1)PHI 3 – 1 CBJ · PHI 99% → >99% +1PHI 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:16Patrik Laine Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (2), Boone Jenner (1)PHI 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ <1% → <1% +0CBJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | PHI: Carter Hart (no track record yet) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +35 Elo | CBJ 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.