Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Brayden PointAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:04Nicholas Paul Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (3), Mikhail Sergachev (3)0–3
- P217:51Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (3), Brayden Point (8)0–2
- P119:06Brayden Point Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (6), Nikita Kucherov (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:06Brayden Point Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (6), Nikita Kucherov (4)CAR 0 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 71% +17TB 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P217:51Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (3), Brayden Point (8)CAR 0 – 2 TB · TB 75% → 90% +15TB 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P317:04Nicholas Paul Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (3), Mikhail Sergachev (3)CAR 0 – 3 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- CAR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −10 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 31st of 315.0 | Goals allowed | 4.026th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.722nd of 31 |
| 5th of 3155.1% | Shot share | 44.0%27th of 31 |
| 31st of 3183.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 16th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.