Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jaccob SlavinGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists2
- Jaccob SlavinPoints2
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Artturi LehkonenAssists3
- Artturi LehkonenPoints4
Scoring summary
- P312:26Jaccob Slavin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4), Seth Jarvis (3)4–6
- P219:35Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (4), Artturi Lehkonen (4)3–6
- P215:57Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3), Valeri Nichushkin (3)3–5
- P214:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Johansen (1), Cale Makar (3)3–4
- P212:21Fredrik Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Bowen Byram (1)3–3
- P210:42Michael Bunting Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (4), Jaccob Slavin (4)3–2
- P29:17Brent Burns Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (2), Stefan Noesen (5)2–2
- P21:57Logan O'Connor Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Andrew Cogliano (3)1–2
- P119:54Ryan Johansen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3), Artturi Lehkonen (2)1–1
- P116:09Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (4), Jack Drury (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:54Ryan Johansen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3), Artturi Lehkonen (2)CAR 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 55% +18COL 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P29:17Brent Burns Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (2), Stefan Noesen (5)CAR 2 – 2 COL · CAR 27% → 46% +19CAR 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P210:42Michael Bunting Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (4), Jaccob Slavin (4)CAR 3 – 2 COL · CAR 46% → 66% +20CAR 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P212:21Fredrik Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Bowen Byram (1)CAR 3 – 3 COL · COL 33% → 54% +21COL 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P214:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Johansen (1), Cale Makar (3)CAR 3 – 4 COL · COL 54% → 74% +20COL 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- CAR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +28 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov (no track record yet) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.70 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +74 Elo | COL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.8 | Goals scored | 3.89th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.8 | Goals allowed | 1.01st of 31 |
| 13th of 310.0 | Margin | +2.81st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.9% | Shot share | 58.3%1st of 31 |
| 31st of 3184.3% | Save percentage | 96.5%1st of 31 |
| 8th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.