Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (3), Mikko Rantanen (4)0–4
- P213:18Devon Toews Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (2), Tomas Tatar (2)0–3
- P118:41Ryan Johansen Goal (1) Batted, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (1), Mikko Rantanen (3)0–2
- P111:46Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (2), Josh Manson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:46Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (2), Josh Manson (1)CHI 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +15COL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P118:41Ryan Johansen Goal (1) Batted, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (1), Mikko Rantanen (3)CHI 0 – 2 COL · COL 71% → 84% +13COL 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P213:18Devon Toews Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (2), Tomas Tatar (2)CHI 0 – 3 COL · COL 88% → 96% +8COL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P38:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (3), Mikko Rantanen (4)CHI 0 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -126
- CHI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +20 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +59 Elo | COL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 1.31st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +2.32nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3144.7% | Shot share | 55.2%7th of 31 |
| 4th of 3194.5% | Save percentage | 95.8%2nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.