Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Kraken- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Kailer YamamotoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P313:45Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Andrew Cogliano (1)3–1
- P211:50Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2), Devon Toews (2)2–1
- P23:50Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:09Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:09Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (2)COL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 53% → 69% +16SEA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P23:50Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 1 – 1 SEA · COL 29% → 47% +18COL 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P211:50Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2), Devon Toews (2)COL 2 – 1 SEA · COL 47% → 68% +21COL 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P313:45Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Andrew Cogliano (1)COL 3 – 1 SEA · COL 86% → 99% +12COL 86% → 99%+12 pts
- P316:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 4 – 1 SEA · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −4 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +2 Elo | COL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 0.731st of 31 |
| 3rd of 311.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+2.0 | Margin | −2.331st of 31 |
| 1st of 3161.0% | Shot share | 49.7%19th of 31 |
| 4th of 3194.7% | Save percentage | 93.0%10th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.