Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Robert Thomas Goal Backhand0–1
- P27:49Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (1)1–1
- P20:40Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1), Vince Dunn (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:40Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1), Vince Dunn (1)SEA 1 – 0 STL · SEA 46% → 63% +18SEA 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P27:49Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (1)SEA 1 – 1 STL · STL 34% → 54% +19STL 34% → 54%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | SEA: Joey Daccord (no track record yet) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 300.5 | Goals scored | 1.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 303.5 | Goals allowed | 2.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3047.1% | Shot share | 41.4%29th of 30 |
| 12th of 3091.8% | Save percentage | 97.1%1st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Kraken: last 2