St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Tyler TuckerGoals1
- Jakub VranaAssists1
- Tyler TuckerPoints1
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Ty DellandreaAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Brayden Schenn Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Backhand1–2
- P22:37Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (1), Sammy Blais (1)1–1
- P20:18Jamie Benn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:18Jamie Benn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)STL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P22:37Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (1), Sammy Blais (1)STL 1 – 1 DAL · STL 29% → 46% +17STL 29% → 46%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Fair odds
- DAL -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | STL: Jordan Binnington (no track record yet) · DAL: Jake Oettinger (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +35 Elo | DAL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.