Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Andreas AthanasiouAssists2
- Andreas AthanasiouPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Mark GiordanoAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:54Taylor Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P217:05Tyler Johnson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (3), Kevin Korchinski (1)3–1
- P214:46Corey Perry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (2), Seth Jones (3)2–1
- P25:14John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (3), Mark Giordano (1)1–1
- P22:59MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (2), Boris Katchouk (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:59MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (2), Boris Katchouk (1)CHI 1 – 0 TOR · CHI 46% → 64% +18CHI 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:14John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (3), Mark Giordano (1)CHI 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 54% +19TOR 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P214:46Corey Perry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (2), Seth Jones (3)CHI 2 – 1 TOR · CHI 47% → 68% +22CHI 47% → 68%+22 pts
- P217:05Tyler Johnson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (3), Kevin Korchinski (1)CHI 3 – 1 TOR · CHI 69% → 86% +17CHI 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P319:54Taylor Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 4 – 1 TOR · CHI 100% → 100% +0CHI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.3 | Goals scored | 6.51st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 4.526th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +2.03rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3144.2% | Shot share | 57.3%6th of 31 |
| 9th of 3193.6% | Save percentage | 83.9%29th of 31 |
| 8th of 221–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blackhawks: last 3