Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:32Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Jake Middleton (1)4–7
- P312:14William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (3), John Tavares (5)3–7
- P310:25Auston Matthews Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Mitchell Marner (3)3–6
- P39:54Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), TJ Brodie (1)3–5
- P29:51Marco Rossi Goal (1) Batted, assists: Marcus Foligno (1), Brock Faber (1)3–4
- P24:09Matt Boldy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Calen Addison (1)2–4
- P23:35Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (1), Morgan Rielly (2)1–4
- P119:37William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (4), Max Domi (1)1–3
- P112:35Auston Matthews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (2)1–2
- P110:54Auston Matthews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (2)1–1
- P19:32Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Jonas Brodin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:32Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Jonas Brodin (1)MIN 1 – 0 TOR · MIN 46% → 62% +16MIN 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P110:54Auston Matthews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (2)MIN 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 38% → 54% +16TOR 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P112:35Auston Matthews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (2)MIN 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +16TOR 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P29:51Marco Rossi Goal (1) Batted, assists: Marcus Foligno (1), Brock Faber (1)MIN 3 – 4 TOR · MIN 13% → 28% +14MIN 13% → 28%+14 pts
- P39:54Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3), TJ Brodie (1)MIN 3 – 5 TOR · TOR 82% → 97% +14TOR 82% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | −11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 292.0 | Goals scored | 6.02nd of 29 |
| 1st of 290.0 | Goals allowed | 5.025th of 29 |
| 5th of 29+2.0 | Margin | +1.010th of 29 |
| 29th of 2933.9% | Shot share | 63.6%1st of 29 |
| 1st of 29100.0% | Save percentage | 79.2%28th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Wild: last 1