Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:51Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (2)4–7
- P315:56Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (3), Martin Necas (3)4–6
- P312:13Tye Kartye Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (1), Will Borgen (1)3–6
- P311:52Jared McCann Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (3), Alex Wennberg (1)3–5
- P35:54Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (3), Seth Jarvis (2)3–4
- P31:08Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (2), Jaccob Slavin (3)2–4
- P22:38Vince Dunn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (2), Oliver Bjorkstrand (2)1–4
- P119:22Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (4)1–3
- P112:18Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1), Vince Dunn (3)1–2
- P17:35Jesper Fast Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (2), Jordan Staal (2)1–1
- P17:16Yanni Gourde Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (1), Eeli Tolvanen (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:16Yanni Gourde Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (1), Eeli Tolvanen (1)CAR 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 55% → 69% +15SEA 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P17:35Jesper Fast Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (2), Jordan Staal (2)CAR 1 – 1 SEA · CAR 31% → 45% +15CAR 31% → 45%+15 pts
- P112:18Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1), Vince Dunn (3)CAR 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 54% → 70% +15SEA 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:22Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (4)CAR 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 71% → 84% +13SEA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P35:54Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (3), Seth Jarvis (2)CAR 3 – 4 SEA · CAR 6% → 21% +15CAR 6% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -122
- CAR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +7 | CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 315.0 | Goals scored | 0.831st of 31 |
| 28th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 3.315th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −2.530th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.7% | Shot share | 51.9%14th of 31 |
| 30th of 3184.8% | Save percentage | 92.0%11th of 31 |
| 4th of 262–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.