Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals2
- Max DomiAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints3
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:05John Tavares Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (5), John Klingberg (4)4–3
- P314:33Matthew Knies Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (3), David Kampf (1)3–3
- P312:11Matthew Knies Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (2)2–3
- P113:29Nikita Kucherov Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (2), Steven Stamkos (4)1–3
- P110:04Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Brayden Point (7)1–2
- P16:26Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (6), Victor Hedman (5)1–1
- P14:16William Nylander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (1), John Tavares (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:16William Nylander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (1), John Tavares (7)TOR 1 – 0 TB · TOR 45% → 60% +15TOR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:26Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (6), Victor Hedman (5)TOR 1 – 1 TB · TB 39% → 55% +15TB 39% → 55%+15 pts
- P110:04Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Brayden Point (7)TOR 1 – 2 TB · TB 55% → 70% +15TB 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P314:33Matthew Knies Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (3), David Kampf (1)TOR 3 – 3 TB · TOR 11% → 48% +38TOR 11% → 48%+38 pts
- OT4:05John Tavares Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (5), John Klingberg (4)TOR 4 – 3 TB · TOR 49% → >99% +50TOR 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- TOR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −9 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 24th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 4.024th of 31 |
| 15th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.0% | Shot share | 45.7%23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3187.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.