Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (3)1–3
- P211:52Mitchell Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), William Nylander (4)1–2
- P119:53Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4), Sam Reinhart (2)0–2
- P117:08Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:08Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 70% +16FLA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:53Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4), Sam Reinhart (2)TOR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 71% → 84% +13FLA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P211:52Mitchell Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), William Nylander (4)TOR 1 – 2 FLA · TOR 12% → 27% +14TOR 12% → 27%+14 pts
- P319:59Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (3)TOR 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Fair odds
- FLA -122
- TOR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −8 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +35 Elo | FLA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.7 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 31 |
| 28th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 3.720th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −1.023rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3156.1% | Shot share | 53.6%9th of 31 |
| 28th of 3186.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Maple Leafs: last 3