Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals2
- Evan RodriguesAssists2
- Evan RodriguesPoints4
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Kyle Connor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (3)4–6
- P317:36Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (2), Sam Reinhart (1)4–5
- P316:31Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (2), Evan Rodrigues (2)3–5
- P314:17Mason Appleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (2)2–5
- P29:55Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (1), Nino Niederreiter (1)2–4
- P28:20Morgan Barron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (1), Mason Appleton (1)2–3
- P20:35Kyle Connor Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1)2–2
- P20:25Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Aleksander Barkov (1)2–1
- P117:03Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (1), Matthew Tkachuk (1)1–1
- P13:30Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Josh Morrissey (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:30Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Josh Morrissey (2)FLA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 69% +14WPG 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:03Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (1), Matthew Tkachuk (1)FLA 1 – 1 WPG · FLA 30% → 46% +16FLA 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P20:25Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Aleksander Barkov (1)FLA 2 – 1 WPG · FLA 46% → 64% +18FLA 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P20:35Kyle Connor Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1)FLA 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 36% → 54% +18WPG 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P28:20Morgan Barron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (1), Mason Appleton (1)FLA 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 53% → 72% +19WPG 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 53%
- Fair odds
- WPG -120
- FLA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −11 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +18 Elo | WPG 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 290.0 | Goals scored | 3.012th of 29 |
| 7th of 292.0 | Goals allowed | 5.024th of 29 |
| 21st of 29−2.0 | Margin | −2.021st of 29 |
| 1st of 2966.1% | Shot share | 62.7%3rd of 29 |
| 16th of 2990.5% | Save percentage | 81.0%27th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Panthers: last 1