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Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast

FinalNHLPP|ESPN+

Away

Jets

0-1-0

3–5

at

Home

Flames

1-0-0

WPG 45%CGY 55%

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Scotiabank Saddledome · NHLPP|ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.

CGY favored WPG favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3CGY50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P319:53Andrew Mangiapane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (2), Elias Lindholm (2)3–5
  • P318:28Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Jonathan Huberdeau (1)3–4
  • P314:18Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (1)3–3
  • P213:49Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1)2–3
  • P211:19Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Dylan DeMelo (1), Adam Lowry (1)2–2
  • P117:50MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Walker Duehr (1)1–2
  • P114:48Kyle Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (1), Neal Pionk (1)1–1
  • P112:29Andrew Mangiapane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Ruzicka (1), Noah Hanifin (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P117:50MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Walker Duehr (1)WPG 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 54% → 71% +16
  2. P211:19Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Dylan DeMelo (1), Adam Lowry (1)WPG 2 – 2 CGY · WPG 27% → 47% +20
  3. P213:49Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1)WPG 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 53% → 74% +20
  4. P314:18Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (1)WPG 3 – 3 CGY · WPG 11% → 48% +37
  5. P318:28Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Jonathan Huberdeau (1)WPG 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 51% → 99% +48

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Flames 55%

LeanHit
WPG 45%CGY 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CGY 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CGY 55%
Fair odds
CGY -122
WPG +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGCGYWhy
Team rating15001500Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——WPG: Connor Hellebuyck (no track record yet) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom (no track record yet)
Elo ratingsCGY +35 EloCGY 55.0%
Market-implied ratingsCGY 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCGY 55.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsFlames
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

No earlier games in the window.