Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Erik HaulaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:37Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (2)4–3
- P38:51Michael McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Alexander Holtz (1)4–2
- P33:35Erik Haula Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (4), Jesper Bratt (2)4–1
- P30:59Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1), Aleksander Barkov (3)4–0
- P211:18Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Dmitry Kulikov (2)3–0
- P113:12Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Josh Mahura (1)2–0
- P13:54Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:54Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (3)FLA 1 – 0 NJ · FLA 45% → 60% +15FLA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P113:12Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Josh Mahura (1)FLA 2 – 0 NJ · FLA 61% → 76% +15FLA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P211:18Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Dmitry Kulikov (2)FLA 3 – 0 NJ · FLA 83% → 93% +10FLA 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P38:51Michael McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Alexander Holtz (1)FLA 4 – 2 NJ · NJ <1% → 5% +4NJ <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P317:37Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (2)FLA 4 – 3 NJ · NJ <1% → 4% +4NJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Fair odds
- NJ -125
- FLA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +55 Elo | NJ 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 4.07th of 31 |
| 20th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−2.0 | Margin | +1.08th of 31 |
| 7th of 3156.9% | Shot share | 43.5%23rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 91.4%15th of 31 |
| 9th of 220–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Panthers: last 2