Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Nick PaulAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11J.T. Miller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (3), Elias Pettersson (7)3–4
- P34:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (2), Brayden Point (5)2–4
- P216:52Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Darren Raddysh (2)2–3
- P215:43Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (1), Nick Perbix (1)2–2
- P21:02Tyler Myers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (6)2–1
- P20:14Brock Boeser Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4)1–1
- P111:10Nicholas Paul Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:10Nicholas Paul Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3)VAN 0 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 69% +15TB 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P20:14Brock Boeser Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4)VAN 1 – 1 TB · VAN 30% → 47% +17VAN 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P21:02Tyler Myers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (6)VAN 2 – 1 TB · VAN 47% → 65% +18VAN 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P215:43Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (1), Nick Perbix (1)VAN 2 – 2 TB · TB 31% → 53% +22TB 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P216:52Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Darren Raddysh (2)VAN 2 – 3 TB · TB 52% → 74% +22TB 52% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −11 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +1 Elo | VAN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.317th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 4.326th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+2.0 | Margin | −1.023rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3140.4% | Shot share | 43.2%25th of 31 |
| 6th of 3194.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 31 |
| 5th of 251–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.