Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P117:23Sean Couturier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P11:45Egor Zamula Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Scott Laughton (3)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:45Egor Zamula Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Scott Laughton (3)VAN 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 68% +14PHI 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P117:23Sean Couturier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 70% → 83% +13PHI 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 316.0 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.517th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+4.0 | Margin | −0.520th of 31 |
| 27th of 3141.7% | Shot share | 47.5%20th of 31 |
| 9th of 3194.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Canucks: last 2