San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Nikolai KnyzhovAssists1
- Mario FerraroPoints1
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists2
- Tommy NovakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:26Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (1)1–5
- P310:34Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (1), Nikolai Knyzhov (1)1–4
- P32:49Tommy Novak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Juuso Parssinen (1)0–4
- P22:18Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2), Tyson Barrie (4)0–3
- P22:06Tommy Novak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (2), Roman Josi (3)0–2
- P117:15Samuel Fagemo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2), Alexandre Carrier (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:15Samuel Fagemo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2), Alexandre Carrier (2)SJ 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 71% +16NSH 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P22:06Tommy Novak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (2), Roman Josi (3)SJ 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 72% → 85% +13NSH 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P22:18Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2), Tyson Barrie (4)SJ 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 85% → 93% +8NSH 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P32:49Tommy Novak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Juuso Parssinen (1)SJ 0 – 4 NSH · NSH 98% → >99% +1NSH 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P310:34Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (1), Nikolai Knyzhov (1)SJ 1 – 4 NSH · SJ <1% → <1% +0SJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Fair odds
- NSH -126
- SJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +60 Elo | NSH 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 311.5 | Goals scored | 2.623rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−2.3 | Margin | −0.417th of 31 |
| 31st of 3134.9% | Shot share | 55.4%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.