Nashville Predators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Cole SmithGoals2
- Tyson BarrieAssists2
- Cole SmithPoints2
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Adam FoxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:18Adam Fox Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Artemi Panarin (4)4–1
- P213:51Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (3), Roman Josi (2)4–0
- P23:32Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (1), Filip Forsberg (4)3–0
- P116:22Cole Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P111:24Cole Smith Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Tyson Barrie (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:24Cole Smith Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Tyson Barrie (2)NSH 1 – 0 NYR · NSH 45% → 61% +16NSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P116:22Cole Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 2 – 0 NYR · NSH 62% → 77% +15NSH 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P23:32Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (1), Filip Forsberg (4)NSH 3 – 0 NYR · NSH 80% → 90% +11NSH 80% → 90%+11 pts
- P213:51Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (3), Roman Josi (2)NSH 4 – 0 NYR · NSH 94% → 98% +4NSH 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P219:18Adam Fox Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Artemi Panarin (4)NSH 4 – 1 NYR · NYR <1% → 4% +3NYR <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Fair odds
- NYR -125
- NSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +52 Elo | NYR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−1.3 | Margin | +1.07th of 31 |
| 5th of 3155.5% | Shot share | 59.6%1st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 87.0%27th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.