New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals3
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Boone JennerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:24Chris Kreider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (2), Adam Fox (3)3–5
- P315:54Justin Danforth Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (1), Kent Johnson (1)2–5
- P310:53Will Cuylle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (1), Erik Gustafsson (1)2–4
- P213:37David Jiricek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (1), Ivan Provorov (2)1–4
- P212:30Boone Jenner Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jake Bean (1)1–3
- P117:45Boone Jenner Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (2), Ivan Provorov (1)1–2
- P19:36Boone Jenner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (1), Kirill Marchenko (3)1–1
- P10:50Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (2), Jimmy Vesey (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:50Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (2), Jimmy Vesey (1)NYR 1 – 0 CBJ · NYR 46% → 60% +15NYR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P19:36Boone Jenner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (1), Kirill Marchenko (3)NYR 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 38% → 54% +16CBJ 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P117:45Boone Jenner Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (2), Ivan Provorov (1)NYR 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 70% +16CBJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P212:30Boone Jenner Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jake Bean (1)NYR 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 87% +15CBJ 73% → 87%+15 pts
- P213:37David Jiricek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (1), Ivan Provorov (2)NYR 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 96% +8CBJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 51%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +8 Elo | CBJ 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 295.0 | Goals scored | 2.019th of 29 |
| 2nd of 291.0 | Goals allowed | 4.019th of 29 |
| 2nd of 29+4.0 | Margin | −2.022nd of 29 |
| 9th of 2955.4% | Shot share | 47.1%18th of 29 |
| 5th of 2996.0% | Save percentage | 94.3%11th of 29 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–114th of 19 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rangers: last 1