San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Luke KuninGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Luke KuninPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:02Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (6), John Carlson (6)1–3
- P315:15Tom Wilson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (5), John Carlson (5)1–2
- P32:18Dylan Strome Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (1), Hardy Haman Aktell (1)1–1
- P111:40Luke Kunin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (1), Mario Ferraro (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Luke Kunin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (1), Mario Ferraro (2)SJ 1 – 0 WSH · SJ 44% → 61% +16SJ 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P32:18Dylan Strome Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (1), Hardy Haman Aktell (1)SJ 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 28% → 53% +26WSH 28% → 53%+26 pts
- P315:15Tom Wilson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (5), John Carlson (5)SJ 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 91% +39WSH 52% → 91%+39 pts
- P319:02Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (6), John Carlson (6)SJ 1 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Fair odds
- WSH -128
- SJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +75 Elo | WSH 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.0 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 31 |
| 29th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−3.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 31 |
| 31st of 3138.5% | Shot share | 47.9%23rd of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.2%27th of 31 |
| 30th of 310–4 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.