Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- John CarlsonGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- John CarlsonPoints1
Senators- Josh NorrisGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:48Jake Sanderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (4), Claude Giroux (4)1–6
- P215:47Claude Giroux Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Tim Stützle (3)1–5
- P24:47Artem Zub Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (3), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)1–4
- P21:47Josh Norris Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (2)1–3
- P118:54John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (1), Tom Wilson (1)1–2
- P112:29Josh Norris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Tim Stützle (2)0–2
- P14:28Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Thomas Chabot (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:28Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Thomas Chabot (1)WSH 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 69% +14OTT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P112:29Josh Norris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Tim Stützle (2)WSH 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 70% → 83% +12OTT 70% → 83%+12 pts
- P118:54John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (1), Tom Wilson (1)WSH 1 – 2 OTT · WSH 16% → 29% +13WSH 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P21:47Josh Norris Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (2)WSH 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 71% → 85% +13OTT 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P24:47Artem Zub Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (3), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)WSH 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 85% → 94% +8OTT 85% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +45 Elo | OTT 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 311.5 | Goals scored | 4.33rd of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.5 | Margin | +1.37th of 31 |
| 30th of 3135.9% | Shot share | 53.2%12th of 31 |
| 12th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Capitals: last 2